基于Kaya公式的大连市装备制造业碳达峰研究

中文关键词: 碳达峰、碳中和、装备制造业、蒙特卡洛、城市规划

英文关键词: carbonpeak  carbonneutrality  equipmentmanufacturingindustry  MonteCarlo  urban planning

中文摘要:

      2020年,中国提出碳达峰、碳中和目标。大连市作为研究对象,探究该市装备制造业的碳排放情况。 通过挖掘该市装备制造业的数据,采用碳排放因子法计算碳排放量,并运用拓展的 Kaya公式模型,分析该行 业碳排放的驱动因素。同时,结合蒙特卡洛模拟,设定三个情景,利用建立的模型动态模拟该市装备制造业在 2021~2035年碳排放曲线,并研究了峰值和达峰时间的概率分布。研究发现,在三种情景下,实现2030年的 碳达峰目标存在较大的不确定性,根据大连市实际情况,为该市装备制造业提供项目规划,助力全市实现碳达 峰目标。

英文摘要:

      In 2020 China proposed carbon peak and carbon neutralitytargets. Dalianis chosen as the research objectto explorethe carbon emissions ofthe equipment manufacturingindustryinthe city. Withthe relative data of the city's equipment manufacturing industry, the carbon emission factor methodis used to calculate carbon emissions, and the extended Kaya formula model is applied to analyzethe driving factors of carbon emissions in the industry. Meanwhile, combined with Monte Carlo simulation, under three scenarios the model is established to dynamically simulate the carbon emission ofthe city's equipment manufacturing industry, and the carbon emission curve if obtained between 2021 and 2035 . The probability distributions ofthe peak value andthetime of reaching the peak areinvestigated. Itisfoundthatthereis alarge uncertaintyin achievingthe peak carbontarget in 2030, and based on the actual situation in Dalian, project planning is provided for the city's equipment manufacturing industry to help the city achieve the peak carbon target.